(Ottawa) Canadians are voting for a new Parliament today in an election that could result in the repeal of same-sex marriage legislation.
Public opinion polls show the opposition Conservatives likely to win but whether Canadians will hand them an absolute majority remains to be seen.
The Conservatives oppose same-sex marriage but for most Canadians the big issues have been a series of scandals that have rocked the governing Liberals and Conservative Party promises to clean up government and cut taxes.
After 12 years in power the Liberals have grown sluggish and many Canadians just say its time for change - any change. That sentiment is helping the smaller opposition New Democrats. Polls show the NDP could have its best showing in more than a decade.
Vote rich Ontario has seen a resurgence in the NDP, especially in the cities which have traditionally been Liberal. Suburban and rural areas appear solidly Tory.
In Quebec, where the biggest Liberal scandal - over advertising kickbacks during the last independence vote - took place, the Bloc Quebecois are likely to pick up seats. But speeches by Conservative leader Stephen Harper have played well in the province and Tories also are looking to win more seats all at the expense of Liberals.
The issue of same-sex marriage came up on the first day of the campaign - an attempt by Harper to get it out of the way early. The Tory leader said that if his Conservatives form the next government he will reopen the marriage debate and put it to a free vote in Parliament.
During the leader's debates the issue came up again as the three other party leaders demanded to know how Harper would repeal the law without using a constitutional opt-out called the notwithstanding clause. Harper said he would not bypass the Constitution but has never said how he intended to get around the gay equality provisions.
In the waning days of the campaign Harper said repealing same-sex marriage was not one of his major priorities although it was still on his "to do" list if he wins.
If Canadians today elect a minority Conservative government same-sex marriage is safe. The New Democrats, Bloc, and the bulk of Liberals oppose any change in the current law.
But should Harper win a majority the issue could come into play. Yet even that is uncertain. With the Conservatives making a concerted effort to portray the party as centrist it selected a number of candidates like former broadcaster Peter Kent who support gay marriage.
Nevertheless, the Tories still have more than their share of extremists, supported by the Christian right, who have made same-sex marriage their main focus while campaigning. Attempts by the media to interview those candidates have been thwarted by national party handlers afraid extremist views could aid the Liberals.
Conservative Christian groups in the US have sent tens of thousands of dollars to their Canadian counterparts. Much of the money has been filtered to the Tory party.
With polls showing the likelihood of a Conservative government American conservatives have been warning their members to keep a low public profile for fear of tipping the election to the Liberals.
"Canadian voters have been led to believe that American conservatives are scary and if the Conservative Party can be linked with us, they can perhaps diminish a Conservative victory," Paul Weyrich, president of the Washington-based Free Congress Foundation, wrote Thursday in an e-mail to other conservative leaders, a copy of which was obtained by the Globe and Mail newspaper.
The National Gay and Lesbian Task Force, the oldest LGBT civil rights organization in the US however made a final appeal to Canadian voters and issued a warning for American gays.
"If the Conservatives succeed in Monday's election, not only will it cause years of turmoil in Canada, it will embolden continued right-wing attacks on the values of dignity, fairness and equality here in the United States," said NGLTF executive director Matt Foreman.
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